It’s scary how similar these two guys’ experience levels are. Both of them have 13 fights. Both have only one loss. They both lost by submission. They have each fought three top level opponents.
Both guys are used to being in their with high level opponents and they are used to being in the UFC’s spotlight, Junior especially because of TUF 13. Based on that, I don’t think experience will play a huge role in this fight.
However, if I had to tilt it in someone’s favor, I would go with Carwin because he has fought for the belt before.